Pablo Lopez's absence leaves Twins' rotation with little margin for error
After losing Joe Ryan to the same injury last August and then seeing the team melt down, the Twins must find a way to weather the storm with their staff ace out for eight to 12 weeks.
Most trace the demise of the Twins’ 2024 season to an Aug. 18 loss in Texas that began a skid in which they won only 12 of their final 39 games. Cory Provus, the team’s television voice, disagrees with this. Instead, he points to Aug. 7.
That was the day starter Joe Ryan walked off the mound at Wrigley Field after throwing a third-inning pitch to the Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong. Initially called right triceps tightness, it was announced that Ryan had sustained a Grade 2 teres major strain in his right (throwing) shoulder.
Ryan, who had been a key cog in the Twins’ starting rotation, was done for the season. Provus’ point — made during a telecast on the Twins’ recent 10-game road trip — was that the loss of an upper-echelon starter began the spiral.
Are the Twins better positioned to avoid a similar melt down this season? Unfortunately, they will have to find out over the next eight to 12 weeks after losing Opening Day starter Pablo Lopez to the same injury on Tuesday night against the Athletics in West Sacramento.
Lopez and Ryan are the Twins’ top starters, and when Lopez walked off the mound after throwing three warmup pitches before the top of the sixth inning it appeared certain bad news was coming.
The difference between what happened with Ryan and Lopez is the timing. The timetable for the injury meant Ryan’s only hope of returning would be if the Twins had made the playoffs. His absence helped end any hope that the Twins would make a second consecutive postseason appearance.
Lopez has more runway to return this summer than Ryan did, but that doesn’t necessarily mean this is a better situation. The Twins already had to dig themselves out after winning only nine of their first 25 games and 13 of their first 33. Minnesota is 34-29 after a 6-4 loss to Toronto on Friday at Target Field and is in a three-way tie with Tampa Bay and the Blue Jays atop the AL wild card standings.
The starting pitching has been a big reason for the turnaround. Their 3.59 ERA was ninth in MLB and sixth in the AL entering Friday. Lopez’s 2.82 ERA in 11 starts and 60.2 innings led the staff, ahead of Ryan’s 2.91 ERA. Bailey Ober, who had been the No. 3 starter, took a 3.48 ERA into his start Friday and Chris Paddack has a 3.58 ERA in what has been a nice bounceback season.
Lopez’s loss applies more pressure on second-year starters Zebby Matthews and David Festa to step into bigger roles and go deeper in games. Festa had a 1.38 ERA in three starts in April after Lopez was lost to the 15-day injured list because of a hamstring strain. But after being summoned from St. Paul to Sacramento to start the series finale against the A’s on Thursday, Festa gave up eight runs and three home runs in 3.2 innings of a 14-3 loss.
Ober followed that with a less than spectacular performance against the Blue Jays. The Twins took a 3-0 lead after two innings, but Ober gave up five runs, including two home runs, in seven innings and left with his team down by two runs. Ober had not given up more than three earned runs in 11 starts after surrendering eight in his first outing on March 30 in St. Louis.
If the Twins are going to survive Lopez’s absence, Ober and Paddack must step into elevated roles. The Paddack part of that equation is most concerning.